Expats in the United Arab Emirates: Time to Pay? Pakistani and Indian rupees to weaken in November, Philippine peso to retreat slightly

Expats in the United Arab Emirates: Time to Pay? The Pakistani and Indian rupee will weaken in November, the Philippine peso will retreat slightly. File photo of Al Ansari’s bureau de change, Dubai, used for illustration purposes.
Image Credit: Photo Virendra Saklani / Gulf News

Dubai: UAE remittances are on the rise as several currencies, especially from South Asia, have lost ground and have seen average remittance rates over the past few weeks. But will the currency trend continue? Estimates show the Philippine peso, Indian rupee and Pakistani rupee to weaken in the coming weeks.

Will the currency at home go up or down?

When it comes to sending money home, knowing if now is the best time to send is essential. To understand whether this is the case or not, you first need to know whether your home currency is expected to rise or fall in the days to come.

Here is an analysis of the performance and expected performance of the aforementioned currencies in the weeks and months to come, to help you understand whether sending money now is profitable or profitable, or whether you should wait a few weeks for a better rate to to come.

The value of the Indian rupee will strengthen by mid-November before weakening by the end of the month

With the Indian rupee (INR) currently at 20.4 to the UAE dirham, the Indian rupee last strengthened to 74.93 against the US dollar.

Indian rupee

Image used for illustration purposes.

According to research, the Indian rupee (INR) is expected to drop to 20.2 by the middle of next month against the UAE dirham, before ending the month at 20.7 – a comparatively better rate for shipments of funds.

So it is financially prudent to pay in at the end of next month, as you will get comparatively more Indian Rupees (INR) to the value of your UAE dirham by the end of November. These month-end rates will remain low in December before stabilizing in January at 20.3, according to current estimates.

AED to INR Forecast

Analysis, as of October 31, shows that INR rates will remain between 20.4 and 20.75 for the remainder of 2021, indicating that the next two months will be the most profitable time to make the payments.
Image Credit: The Economic Forecasting Agency

The analysis shows that rates will remain between 20.4 and 20.75 for the remainder of 2021, indicating that the next two months will be the most profitable time to make payments. For now, rates are unlikely to stay favorable for remittances early next year.

The value of the Pakistani rupee is expected to weaken in the coming weeks

In Pakistan, the purchase rate of the US dollar was currently 172.15 Pakistani rupees or PKR (46.87 against the UAE dirham).

According to research, the Pakistani rupee (PKR) is expected to fall to 47.16 by the end of November, from 46.87 currently against the UAE dirham. Rates will strengthen before rising steadily throughout November, before ending the month at 47.16.

pakistani rupee

Image used for illustration purposes.

During the last two weeks of November, the Pakistani rupee (PKR) is expected to average between 47.14 and 47.16, making it an ideal and most profitable time to make payments.

Rates are expected to fall in November and fall even further in December, to between 46.7 and 47.94 respectively, before the value of the Pakistani rupee (PKR) plunges in January 2022, by Rs1.

Where is the Philippine peso heading in the coming weeks?

According to research, the Philippine Peso (PHP) is expected to stabilize at 13.7 against the UAE Dirham over the next 30 days, making it ideal for sending money over the next few weeks.

Rates are expected to drop slightly in November to 13.8, and fall even more in December, to between 13.7 and 13.9 respectively, before the Philippine Peso (PHP) rises in January 2022, to around 14.

RTB retail Philippine Treasury Bonds

Image used for illustration purposes.

The average exchange rate against the UAE dirham in November will be 13.68, with the currency falling 1.7% during the month. During the month of December, rates are expected to rebound, increasing 1.2%, with an average exchange rate of 14.08. In January, rates are currently expected to be 13.98, staying more or less at the same rate as the month before.

However, as rates are expected to fall further in the first few months of next year, it would be more cost effective to make payments during those months. The Philippine Peso (PHP), which is currently 13.76 against the UAE dirham, lost 1% in the last quarter.

What are the factors triggering these currency movements?

The value of a country’s currency is related to its economic conditions and policies.

The value of a currency usually depends on factors that affect the economy such as imports and exports, inflation, employment, interest rates, growth rate, trade deficit, market performance stock markets, foreign exchange reserves, macroeconomic policies, foreign investment inflows, bank capital, commodity prices and geopolitical conditions.

Going forward, currencies are expected to remain under pressure due to rising crude prices and the relative strength of the US dollar in currency markets. A possible decline against the dirham is a reflection of the decline in the decline of currencies against the US dollar to which the currency of the United Arab Emirates is pegged. However, if the US dollar weakens, as some analysts predict, the trends will reverse.

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In summary, given the potential fluctuation in demand for the US dollar in the coming months, South Asian currencies could also experience similar volatility in the coming months.

Despite the rise in oil prices, uncertainties hovered as the market came under further pressure. Oil prices are currently struggling to break out of current ranges this year, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, known as OPEC +, may have no choice but to extend major production cuts to support the market. OPEC and its allies have so far taken a phased approach to increasing supplies.

India, the world’s third-largest consumer of oil, is concerned about domestic price pressures, with the country expecting fuel consumption to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.

In summary, given the potential fluctuation in demand for the US dollar in the coming months, South Asian currencies could also experience similar volatility in the coming months.


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